Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.724739 2.913982 3.116923 3.351989 3.618371 3.912811 4.265611
2025-03-02 2.435665 2.687232 2.972009 3.322444 3.748140 4.256900 4.924551
2025-03-09 2.250909 2.534749 2.867924 3.295592 3.842120 4.535705 5.516295
2025-03-16 2.122726 2.428606 2.798026 3.288690 3.942913 4.817853 6.142739
2025-03-23 2.041878 2.369158 2.774647 3.330393 4.101808 5.188118 6.954436
2025-03-30 1.937642 2.270822 2.691273 3.280960 4.124672 5.361526 7.493055
2025-04-06 1.846472 2.182221 2.612548 3.228158 4.132692 5.507671 8.010371
2025-04-13 1.752874 2.084640 2.514855 3.139660 4.076808 5.542923 8.334202
2025-04-20 1.713544 2.055645 2.506539 3.175480 4.208998 5.895963 9.337576
2025-04-27 1.687351 2.042071 2.517404 3.238324 4.387605 6.352465 10.693231
2025-05-04 1.662045 2.027851 2.525669 3.296627 4.563544 6.832309 12.286589
2025-05-11 1.612501 1.977769 2.479877 3.268261 4.590472 7.035254 13.285435
2025-05-18 1.567233 1.932576 2.439986 3.248132 4.632808 7.282763 14.543761
2025-05-25 1.522994 1.887030 2.397313 3.220595 4.659224 7.503072 15.848054
2025-06-01 1.482542 1.845134 2.357814 3.195133 4.686174 7.728864 17.311576
2025-06-08 1.449927 1.813052 2.331208 3.188581 4.746843 8.040758 19.310089
2025-06-15 1.431318 1.800221 2.332644 3.228170 4.898778 8.597489 22.819777
2025-06-22 1.392330 1.756371 2.284837 3.181242 4.876434 8.723835 24.541151
2025-06-29 1.354761 1.713422 2.236747 3.131089 4.843100 8.817230 26.229914
2025-07-06 1.310966 1.660138 2.170894 3.046967 4.734139 8.695046 26.632331
2025-07-13 1.297280 1.650775 2.172827 3.081026 4.871531 9.267435 32.150575
2025-07-20 1.290049 1.650599 2.188904 3.140747 5.069555 10.069370 41.556513
2025-07-27 1.282009 1.648833 2.202205 3.196118 5.265104 10.933291 55.654680